Delphic Research

Weekly Top Stories:  Advance Polls Hit Record High Amid Heated Final Days of Federal Campaign

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With polls tightening and the final days of campaigning in full swing, Canadians are facing big questions about the future of healthcare, economic resilience, and national identity. This election isn’t just about choosing a leader—it’s about choosing the direction the country takes amid growing global uncertainty.

Advance polls hit an all-time high, with 7.3 million Canadians voting early—a 25% increase from the 5.8 million in 2021. Student Vote Canada will bring the federal election into over 7,000 schools nationwide to introduce students to politics and the democratic process firsthand. The program also allows students to explore parties, platforms, and debates and cast their ballots for actual candidates.

According to Abacus Data, Liberal supporters are looking for stability amid the comeback of the Trump administration. Meanwhile, Conservative voters are motivated by reclaiming control over various issues, and the New Democrats are seeking to fix the broken system. The Bloc supporters are still focused on Quebec, from cultural preservation to regional pride.

Against this backdrop, polling data shows a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives. The Liberals maintain a slight lead nationally, holding strong in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

Nanos Research data revealed that the recent polls indicate that the Liberals are at 42.9% and the Conservatives at 39.3%. In a Léger poll, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre gained 21 points among the youth voters in three years, establishing the party’s competitiveness in the election.

Meanwhile, the New Democrats have seen their numbers decline as focus narrows on the primary contenders, following a brief increase in support post-debates.

Recent voter preferences highlighted key demographic segments, such as first- and second-generation Canadians, who have a stronger preference for the Liberals, while more established Canadian citizens are divided almost equally between the two parties. Some voters stated that they will support a candidate who will stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump.

While the 2021 election saw healthcare as a central theme, the current discourse has shifted predominantly towards sustaining or enhancing programs like child care, dental care, and Pharmacare. Different parties, however, have varied stances on these programs, with the Conservatives expressing skepticism towards universal Pharmacare and the NDP scrutinizing the Liberals’ inaction to expand.

The Canadian Federation of Nurses Unions revealed in its analysis of federal parties’ platforms on public health care that most of the parties fared well, except for the Conservatives. The federation is calling for voters to assess healthcare commitments from the candidates. Likewise, the Arthritis Research Canada and the Alzheimer Society of Canada are advocating for federal support for these diseases to be included in the national priority.

But healthcare debates stretch beyond campaign promises. Ruolz Ariste, Adjunct Professor of Industrial Relations at the Université du Québec en Outaouais, published a new analysis on physician spending trends in Canada. Although Canada ranked fifth among countries with the highest healthcare spending as a percentage of GDP, it also ranked tenth in primary healthcare access among high-income countries.

Comparing data from 2000 to 2023, Ariste found that the total spending on physicians increased by 5.7% every year, but the average growth rate of the number of services only grew by 1.4% per year during the same period. Almost 70% of the increase in spending was attributed to the rising cost of services. These findings echo voter frustrations that funding  alone isn’t solving access issues.

Cross-border healthcare concerns also intensified. The Globe and Mail reported that the White House and Florida are promoting Canadian drug imports to lower U.S. drug costs, with Florida’s deputy chief of staff Mallory McManus expressing support for the new administration’s focus despite ongoing roadblocks.

However, Joelle Walker of the Canadian Pharmacists Association and Health Canada have raised concerns about potential domestic shortages and questioned the logic of exporting Canadian drugs sourced from the same manufacturers.

On a reflective note, Prime Minister Mark Carney issued a statement mourning the passing of Pope Francis, calling him a leader of moral clarity and compassion. Carney praised the Pope’s teachings on justice, ecology, and human dignity, which will leave a lasting legacy.

The moment offered a pause from political sparring, highlighting the enduring impact of leadership grounded in dignity and hope. Even in an election season filled with sharp divides, moments like these remind Canadians of shared values and the kind of leadership that transcends politics.

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